Business Advisory & M&A Support

    Cash Flow & Debt Service Modeling in Manassas, VA

    Before you sign for acquisition financing, apply for an SBA loan, or commit to a major investment, you need to know one thing: can you actually afford the payments? Not just on paper—but when cash is tight, when revenue dips, when unexpected expenses hit.

    We build cash flow and debt service models that pressure-test affordability, calculate your DSCR, and show you exactly how much runway you have. Serving business owners across Northern Virginia and the DC area with clear, lender-ready financial analysis.

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    What Cash Flow & Debt Service Modeling Covers

    Whether you're financing an acquisition, applying for a business loan, or evaluating a major capital decision, our modeling gives you the numbers you need to decide with confidence.

    Historical cash flow analysis and normalization
    Forward-looking projections (13-week, 12-month, 3-5 year)
    Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) calculations
    Sensitivity analysis and stress testing
    Acquisition financing models (SBA, conventional, seller financing)
    Break-even and runway analysis
    Working capital requirements modeling
    Lender-ready financial packages and presentations

    Who This Is For

    Cash flow modeling is most valuable when you're facing a specific decision that involves debt, investment, or significant cash commitment.

    Business Buyers Financing an Acquisition

    You need to prove the deal cash flows before the bank will lend—and before you should commit

    Owners Applying for Business Loans

    SBA 7(a), SBA 504, or conventional loans all require projections that show repayment ability

    Growing Businesses Planning Major Investments

    New equipment, facilities, or hires—understand the cash impact before you commit

    Owners Evaluating Debt Capacity

    How much can you safely borrow? What's your runway if revenue dips?

    Businesses in Cash-Tight Situations

    Understand exactly how long your runway is and what levers you can pull

    Sellers Preparing for Due Diligence

    Buyers will model your cash flow—better to have your own analysis ready

    What You Get (Deliverables)

    You don't just get a spreadsheet—you get a complete analysis package you can use for decision-making, lender presentations, and ongoing reference.

    Dynamic Excel model you can update and scenario-test yourself
    DSCR analysis showing coverage under base, optimistic, and pessimistic cases
    Sensitivity analysis: what happens if revenue drops 10%, 20%, 30%?
    Break-even analysis: minimum revenue needed to cover debt service
    Working capital analysis: cash needed to fund growth
    Executive summary suitable for lenders, investors, or internal use
    Presentation deck (if needed for bank meetings or board presentations)

    The Biggest "Gotchas" Modeling Catches Early

    These are the surprises that kill deals, stress businesses, and catch owners off guard. Good modeling surfaces them before you commit.

    Debt payments that look affordable on paper but don't account for seasonal cash flow dips
    Working capital requirements that eat up more cash than expected during growth
    Owner compensation that needs to come out before debt service—not after
    Tax payments (quarterly estimates) that compete with debt payments for cash
    CapEx requirements the seller didn't mention that will require additional investment
    Customer concentration risk: what happens if your biggest customer leaves?
    Accounts receivable that look good on the balance sheet but don't actually collect

    Modeling Requires Reliable Financial Inputs

    A cash flow model is only as good as the data behind it. If your books are messy, incomplete, or haven't been reconciled, we may need to clean them up first—or the model won't be reliable.

    For acquisition modeling, we also analyze the seller's books to identify normalization adjustments and potential red flags.

    Modeling for Acquisitions (Buy-Side Support)

    Acquisition financing requires a different kind of model. You're not just projecting your existing business—you're projecting a business you don't yet own, often with incomplete information and a seller who's motivated to present things favorably.

    We build acquisition models that account for deal structure (asset vs. stock), financing terms (SBA, conventional, seller notes), working capital adjustments, and realistic integration costs.

    What Buy-Side Modeling Includes:

    • Seller financials analysis and normalization
    • Deal structure comparison (asset vs. stock, allocation)
    • Financing scenario comparison (SBA vs. conventional vs. seller)
    • DSCR at various price points to support negotiation
    • Working capital and integration cost estimates

    How Cash Flow Modeling Connects to Tax Planning

    Cash flow and taxes are deeply connected. Your quarterly estimated payments, year-end tax liability, and owner distributions all affect how much cash you actually have available for debt service.

    We model taxes into our cash flow projections—not just as an annual expense, but as quarterly cash outflows that compete with debt payments and operating needs.

    Our Modeling Process (3 Steps)

    We move quickly without cutting corners. Most modeling engagements are complete within 2-3 weeks.

    1

    Data Gathering & Normalization

    We collect historical financials, understand your business drivers, and normalize for one-time items and owner adjustments to establish a reliable baseline.

    2

    Model Building & Scenario Analysis

    We build a dynamic model tailored to your situation, then stress-test it under different assumptions—revenue growth, margin changes, timing shifts.

    3

    Delivery & Decision Support

    You receive a complete model with documentation, plus a walkthrough so you understand the numbers. We're available to present to lenders or answer follow-up questions.

    FAQs — Cash Flow & Debt Service Modeling

    Common questions from business owners in Manassas, Northern Virginia, and the DC area.

    QWhat is debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and why does it matter?

    DSCR measures whether a business generates enough cash flow to cover its debt payments. It's calculated as net operating income divided by total debt service. Lenders typically require a DSCR of 1.25x or higher—meaning you generate 25% more cash than needed for payments. We help you understand your current DSCR and model how it changes under different scenarios.

    QHow far out should cash flow projections go?

    For M&A transactions and SBA loans, we typically model 3-5 years of projections. For ongoing advisory, we focus on 13-week and 12-month rolling forecasts. The right timeframe depends on your specific situation—lenders and buyers often have specific requirements we can help you meet.

    QCan you help us prepare for SBA loan applications?

    Yes. We prepare cash flow models and financial projections that meet SBA 7(a) and 504 requirements. We also help you present your business in the best light to lenders while keeping projections realistic and defensible.

    QWhat if our historical cash flow is inconsistent or messy?

    We help normalize cash flow for one-time events, owner adjustments, and seasonal variations. Clear explanations of historical variations actually strengthen your position with buyers or lenders—they want to see you understand your own numbers.

    QHow does this differ from cash flow planning?

    Cash flow modeling is typically a one-time project focused on a specific decision—an acquisition, loan application, or major investment. Cash flow planning is ongoing work to manage your weekly and monthly cash position. We offer both, and they often work together.

    QDo you work with our lender or broker directly?

    We can. We regularly coordinate with SBA lenders, commercial banks, and business brokers to ensure our projections meet their requirements and answer their questions. Having a CPA-prepared model often speeds up the underwriting process.

    QWhat do we need to provide to get started?

    We need 2-3 years of historical financial statements (P&L, balance sheet), recent bank statements, details on existing debt, and information about the specific opportunity or decision you're modeling. For acquisitions, we also need the seller's financials and deal terms.

    Ready to Model Your Cash Flow?

    Whether you're financing an acquisition, applying for a loan, or evaluating a major investment, let's build a model that gives you confidence in your numbers. Serving business owners throughout Manassas, Northern Virginia, and the DC area.

    Book a Free Advisory Call
    Hollins & Hur logo

    Small business accountants in Manassas, VA serving Manassas, Gainesville, Haymarket, and small businesses across Northern Virginia & Washington DC. We provide bookkeeping, tax preparation, tax planning, and advisory support so businesses can grow with confidence.

    Phone: (571) 222-4765

    Email: sales@hollinsandhur.com

    Gainesville • Haymarket • Manassas

    8506 Wellington Road, Suite 201

    Manassas, VA 20109

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    Hollins and Hur is the brand name under which Hollins and Hur Accounting and Tax and Nautilus Financials LLC and its subsidiary entities provide professional services. Hollins and Hur Accounting and Tax and Nautilus Financials LLC and its subsidiary entities practice as an alternative practice structure in accordance with the AICPA Code of Professional Conduct and applicable law, regulations and professional standards. Hollins and Hur Accounting and Tax is a licensed independent CPA firm that provides attest services to its clients. Nautilus Financials LLC and its subsidiary entities, which are not licensed CPA firms, provide tax, advisory and other non-attest services to its clients. The entities falling under the Hollins and Hur brand are independently owned and are not liable for the services provided by any other entity providing the services under the Hollins and Hur brand. Our use of the terms "our firm" and "we" and "us" and terms of similar import, denote the alternative practice structure conducted by Hollins and Hur Accounting and Tax and Nautilus Financials LLC and its subsidiary entities.